Breeding to T3's Produces an Abundance of T1's?

Hi everyone! I know there have been some general estimates towards breeding/genetic percentages, and I know they're just that- estimates. But good Lord, it seems like breeding a tier two to a tier three produces far more tier ones than breeding two tier two's together! (For the record, the current estimation is 49% 1/ 50% 2, but when I tell you it feels like 95% 1/ 5% 2 jsdhskl)

I'm not sure if I just have horrendous luck or what, but I kind of wanted to hear from others regardless! Is anyone else seemingly cursed by entire potato litters from tier three breeding efforts? I know tier threes are meant to be difficult to obtain- and rightfully so. I do indeed enjoy the challenge. But adding further salt to the "no tier three in this litter" wound by producing an entire army of potatoes instead? press f to pay respects 

I’ve noticed it a bit as well. It pains me to end up with a litter of TIs after I’ve paid a 20 GC stud fee 🥲

Absolutely! It hurts when the stud feed is already so high, and then you decide to chance it and pay more GC for an IDF only to end up with an entire litter of tier ones like hskdhslkds. Both litters I just bred were entirely tier one, and my friends have also experienced the same thing. I feel like I get more tier twos from breed a tier one to a tier two than I do breeding a tier two to a tier three!

Those statistics are not accurate. Percentages resulting from breeding tier II to tier III sum up to 102.5% instead of 100%.

Yeah I figured. They did list them as just “estimations” and not actual percentages. But regardless of breaking the 100% mark or not, the actual percentages do seem to favor tier ones WAY more dkwndnwn- at least from my efforts thus far.

Way more? It's 1 percent point of difference, relatively 2% less chance to get tier I when you breed tier I to tier III. Also, as the statistics are not accurate, it's possible that actually breeding tier I to tier III produces more tier I pups. Topic was made when tiers III weren't bred yet and iirc it used to be said 1% chance to get tier III from breeding tier II to tier III when tiers III weren't being bred yet.

That’s what I was saying lol! The legitimate percentages, aka the ACTUAL chances of getting tier ones from tier three breeding efforts, are likely way higher than the current estimations. From all the tier threes I’ve attempted to breed to with tier twos, and from all the tier ones I’ve gotten, I would put it more at like:

75% of getting a tier one, 24% chance of getting a tier two, and 1% chance of getting a tier three.

Again, I know the grousehouse statistics are JUST estimations, but I still wanted to make this thread to gauge everyone’s general experience. I wanted to see if I was just having a bad streak of luck, or if tier ones are indeed a big commonality!

I'm too dumb atm to get into the stats but I've noticed this as well. When T3s were first 'released', i got tier IIs constantly from fox studs. But recently I have had an ABUNDANCE of T1 pups. Coincidentally I've started to use non-fox studs, so maybe that has something to do with it? Not fully sure :/

Hmm this is weird... when i breed my wolves i tend to get more TII than TI i even got a TIII on my fist try but i have to say that i don't breed with fox studs, i look for studs that have almost the same base genes as my wolves for example: i just recently breed my Sulphur warm medium II wolf with a Mojave warm medium III stud and got a Mojave TIII pup, maybe i was lucky but i think that those genes mater a lot in order to get TIII pups, always go for the most similar.

And when i didn't get a TIII i just got mostly TII pups and one TI from a litter. 

@Gracie I attempt to do the same thing too, just to maybe amplify my odds. But yeah, it's super strange, and it's difficult to decipher between bad luck and legitimate percentages. For example, two of my friends and I have been cursed with breeding tons of t1's from litters, but my other friend quickly bred a fox/t3 much like you.

I imagine someone would need to do a big polling study to get a better idea of the actual percentages/chances. To me though, it really does feel like tier ones are more common, considering I seem to consistently produce entire litters of them lol!

So yeah, @AlphaAlpha I feel that. I can't recall if I was receiving tier twos when the tier threes were first released, but I know I've definitely had an influx of ones lately too.